Golden Cross Strategy (SMA 10/30)
Traditional trend-following strategy: Buy when short-term MA (10d) crosses above long-term MA (30d), Sell when it crosses below.
Strategy Return
+23.47%
Buy & Hold
+18.32%
Alpha (Excess)
+5.15%
Total Trades
14
Win Rate
57.1%
Max Drawdown
-12.8%
📊 Strategy Analysis
The Golden Cross strategy achieved approx. 5.15% excess return compared to buy & hold during the test period. The main advantage was effectively capturing strong Bitcoin uptrends, especially during the Feb-Mar 2024 rally.
However, 5 whipsaws occurred during the sideways market in Apr-May, leading to unnecessary trading costs. This is a typical weakness of MA-based strategies in non-trending markets.
💡 Key Findings
- Strength: Captures trends well in major bull markets
- Weakness: Frequent false signals in sideways ranges
- Improvement: Use with ADX to filter low-trend periods